S&P Global Projects U.S. LNG Exports to Drive $1.4 Trillion Economic Boost

The U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is on track to become the country’s second-largest net export sector within the next five years, fueled by a surge in investment, expanding export capacity and growing global demand for reliable energy supplies, according to a new study released by S&P Global Energy.

The report projects that U.S. feedgas demand for LNG exports will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day by 2031, around 25% higher than earlier forecasts. If current development plans proceed, the United States is expected to capture more than one-third of the global LNG market, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest LNG exporter.

The findings reflect a significant acceleration in industry growth following the lifting of the U.S. pause on LNG export approvals in early 2025. Since then, seven LNG projects have reached final investment decisions, while additional projects are expected to secure approval over the coming year.

S&P Global estimates that cumulative investment across the U.S. LNG supply chain will exceed $1 trillion through 2040, supporting continued expansion across upstream production, pipelines, liquefaction facilities, shipping infrastructure and related services.

The study projects the industry will support approximately 555,000 jobs annually through 2040 while contributing $1.4 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product. Total business revenues generated by LNG activity are forecast to reach $2.9 trillion, alongside $206 billion in combined federal and state tax revenues and nearly $630 billion in labor income over the same period.

Economic benefits are expected to extend well beyond traditional energy-producing regions. According to the analysis, 42% of employment generated by LNG development and one-third of GDP contributions will occur in states that are not major natural gas producers, reflecting the broad manufacturing, engineering, transportation and logistics supply chain supporting the sector.

The report argues that the rapid expansion of LNG exports is unlikely to materially increase domestic natural gas costs. Average household natural gas expenses are projected to rise by only about 1.6% between 2026 and 2031, leaving U.S. residential and industrial gas prices among the lowest globally.

Researchers attribute this resilience to the country’s abundant natural gas resources, extensive pipeline network and growing production capacity. The United States has identified commercial gas resources sufficient for decades of production at current output levels and operates more than 300,000 miles of interstate natural gas transmission pipelines.

The study also highlights how LNG export infrastructure can enhance domestic energy security during periods of peak demand. During Winter Storm Fern, export facilities redirected as much as 9 billion cubic feet per day of feedgas back into the domestic market, helping stabilize supplies for residential heating demand.

Beyond its domestic economic impact, S&P Global believes continued LNG expansion will play an increasingly important role in global energy markets.

The report modeled a scenario in which new LNG projects approved after 2025 were delayed or cancelled. Under that scenario, global LNG markets would tighten significantly by 2031, with natural gas prices in Europe and Asia rising by as much as 50%. The resulting supply gap could shift as much as $76 billion annually in energy revenues to competing exporters while increasing reliance on alternative fossil fuels, including coal.

The study also notes that Russia could be among the largest beneficiaries of reduced U.S. LNG exports because of its underutilized pipeline and LNG infrastructure capable of supplying European markets, despite existing sanctions.

Domestically, infrastructure development remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges. While U.S. gas production has grown substantially over the past decade, pipeline bottlenecks continue to create seasonal price volatility in certain regions, particularly the Northeast.

Expanding pipeline capacity into New England and New York could reduce peak winter natural gas prices in those markets by more than 20% between 2028 and 2031, according to the report, underscoring the importance of midstream infrastructure alongside export growth.

The analysis portrays LNG as an increasingly strategic U.S. export industry, with economic benefits extending across manufacturing, construction, transportation and professional services while strengthening America’s position in global energy markets.

With additional export projects moving toward final investment decisions and worldwide demand for LNG expected to remain strong, the sector is positioned to become one of the country’s most significant contributors to trade, employment and economic growth over the coming decade.

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